Unlike last month we are even more inventory constrained than this time last year and there are some anomalies in the data...

We are down 15.6% for new single-family home listings from this time last year. YET we have 6.7% more homes on the market to choose from.  And the numbers for townhomes or condos?  Well they are coming in with even fewer new listings as we are down 30.4%, and like their detached cousins, have 14.9% more homes to choose from on the market.

Confused?

Well those listings are taking longer to sell, which you can see on the Days On Market Stat (up 42.4% for single-family homes and ). The lower-priced attached townhomes and condos have even higher numbers 77.5% more time on market!  Keep in mind that even DOUBLING a really low number is still a low number!  We're talking going from 21 to 28 days on market.

Hello #market-confusion

So what are the numbers really telling us?

The short version is yes we have more inventory yet the central core of the market is still undersupplied and the lower the price-point, the more undersupplied it is...  If you look at the price-bands inside Boulder County, there is a glut of near-luxury and luxury homes (priced $1.3-1.9m and over $1.9m which have 26.4% and 52.2% more inventory.  And that lowest price point of under $750,000 has 14.2% less inventory than last year.

How is this  possible you ask? Well new those higher priced homes are more affected by higher interest rates and lagging stock portfolios.  At the best of times more expensive homes take longer to sell as there are fewer buyers and fewer buyers as the homes get more expensive.  In other words, most people buying more expensive homes need a mortgage and usually don't *NEED* to buy or sell...  And those selling the larger homes and downsizing potentially have larger home payments, so they aren't selling!  To add to the pressures, there are still new households being formed at the rate of approximately 1000/yr.  And yes, those new homes typically are in lower cost price bands.  Speaking of the lower price bands, they have only 6 weeks of inventory!  Just 1.5 months!  Generally speaking anything with less than 6 months of inventory is considered a seller's market!

That declining sales number? Since sales numbers are a lagging indicator, all that shows is how inventory constrained the market still is.

Longer days on market?  Yes many homes are still selling in the first week, but not all and certainly not the  overpriced homes which are sitting.  Also the lower the price point, the faster you're likely to see the home sell.  Possibly even with multiple offers.

This is showing that there is a disconnect between buyer and seller expectations.

And home prices?  Well all that is reflecting is that we are finally getting some of the lower priced-band homes to come to market.  (hint, the median price of a home in Boulder is NOT $2.1M, but it was the median price of the inventory available to buy this week!  Even the median price of new listings in Boulder of $1.725m is not what the median price of the typical "average" home is!)

So to wrap up, it appears that the market as a whole is starting to trend towards a more normal market... Yet if you are buying or selling, it really depends what price-band you are in as more than half the market is still inventory constrained.

So how you approach the market really depends on what sector you're looking to transact in. Feel free to reach out and we'd be happy to help analyze the exact sector you're interested in and create a custom plan that meets your specific needs!